February 19th, 2016 by Mary Ongubo

Insider Secret:How Sportpesa REALLY Makes Money

So you keep wondering how Sportpesa really sets the odds especially for KPL matches.Here is basic insider information on how major bookies work their system to get odds.There is no secret that Spesa always has an advantage over the bettors , as they have comprehensive information about the participants of events and creates lines with a view to minimizing their risks . Some professional bettors naively believe that if they will bet on some little-known events, such as Russia’s second division match, the ignorant Sportpesa is sure to make a mistake and offer them high odds. In practice, it says only one thing, the so-called “professional” has no idea how bookmakers line is formed actually. A bookmarkers line is what you call the ODDS for an event. And it is very useful to know , because having such information and analyzing it, you can really afford to gain an advantage, but first things first .


Chance of any outcome varies from 0 to 100%, or from 0 to 1. Each event can have several outcomes. For example, in a football game can beat the home team,away team or a draw. Each outcome has a probability. Sum of the probabilities of all outcomes is always 100%.Experts at Sportpesa are required to estimate the probability of each outcome as good as possible.


To estimate the probability Sportpesa uses:


– Statistics of previous games teams;


– A list of injured players;


– Motivating the team and individual players;


– Relationships within the team and between the players and coach;


– The situation surrounding the future transition of players to other teams or the expectations of the arrival of new players, it affects the morale of the team;


– Objectives of the team in the tournament, which is held as part of the match;


– The country, the city, the stadium where the match will take place (based on this: the duration of the flight, the aggressiveness of the fans and the level of support, covering the lawn, etc.);


– Loyalty arbitrators appointed for the match;


– Weather forecast at the time of the event;


and many other factors.


After a deep analysis of the people in charge of setting the odds display the probability for each outcome of sports events. It further needs to value from 0 to 1 (50% 0.5 = 30% = 0.3, 7 = 0.07%). Thereafter, the unit (1) divided by the probability values and the coefficients are obtained. For example, for a 50% ratio is: 1/0.5 = 2.0, 30% for: 1/0.3 = 3.33 to 7%: 1/0.07 = 14.29.


The resulting coefficients are aligned chance event outcomes and are thus the odds. If the odds are defined correctly, Sportpesa does not care, on what  outcome of the event players will bet. This is due to the fact that if a lot of these will be played exactly the same match, the outcome will be distributed evenly: the home team to win every other match, a draw will occur in 3 of the 10 matches, and only the away team to win 7 times out of 100. But if the coefficients are calculated correctly, the winnings will never exceed the amount of money raised for all outcomes of the same event.


An exception may be only the case at the Sportpesa, when a large amount of money placed on one outcome, and there comes the so-called money-skewed line. Professional bettors  are constantly noticing a situation where the odds vary in line near the beginning of the match compared to earlier during the day or a day earlier. This is due to the fact that the sport pesa adjusts the line due to the fact that on one outcome put a lot more money than the opposite, and it is desirable uniform distribution rates.In this case, they lure players to high odds(ie. coefficients of the outcome), which is not set. A small odds on the outcome, on which the most money is raised, push away those who would like to bet on favorite team like Barca and Real Madrid matches .At least thats the theory part.

In practice, of course, each bookie more so Sportpesa does not create his own line except for local matches in the Kenya Premier League(KPL). For these purposes they would have to hire specialists forecasters very high class for each sport, and this can afford only favorites .
In practice, most bookmakers simply rewrite the line with each other. Bookmaker try to limit bets to minimize their risks . Let’s look at the principle of lines forming on small local competition in stages to ensure, that waiting for an error from the bookmaker – a thankless task .Bookmakers find a way out of this situation. And the way out of this situation is mutual assistance. Large and small, local and foreign operators start, like a big family, helping each other.
The process of forming the line here undergoes four key stages. Let us examine each of them in detail on the example of the Russian Basketball League match Khimki – Unix:
The first – is the formation of the initial line. This “dirty work” in the bulk operate sportsbooks that are closest to the action. A Sportpesa bookmaker can only wait and monitor the activity of players and cash flows on a given line. Based on these data , Sportpesa bookmakers form their odds. eg. 1.5 – 2.5
The second key step is ” ramming the line .” It usually begins the day before the match. At this stage giants like betting Bet365,Betwin, Ladbrokes or Gamebookers begin to exhibit their lines market. As in the case of the first stage, at the stage of “ramming” closely monitored by the number and size of bets on each of the outcomes , and the line is adjusted on the basis of these data. At this stage the office actively begin check their lines with lines of competitors and rewrite them. If we return to our match Khimki-Unix, at this stage the odds already constitute 1.35-2.80.
The third and most important stage in the formation of lines is “global rewriting”. The name speaks for itself. Rewriting traditionally begins on the morning of the match when occurs players main activity. Coming to work at 8 am, Sportpesa spread their lines in 12-13 hours a day. In the 4 hours they are using special software that scan active bettors, monitors the main financial flows, compare their data with the competitors, and based on this information publish the most optimal odds, which is issued for their own. Thus, 5 hours before the beginning of the match , we have the coefficients of 1.39 to win Khimki and 2.70 UNIKS to win.
It is at the stage of global rewriting included in the formation of lines, most bookmakers , including all Kenyan bookmakers such as Sportpesa,Betin,Betway,mCheza,Justbet just to name a few . This phase – the most important for bettors who want to get the best conditions . Global rewriting lines – real time in order to make a bet ( provided that you still see somewhere advantage over the line ). Experts prefer to catch the most “delicious” odds on the stage of ” ramming “.
The fourth and final stage – the line correction. At this stage, the whole market (all bookies both in Kenya and internationally)comes around to a consensus about the odds line up for the match . Once the line becomes public Sportpesa begins to adjust the line depending on how the cash balance is distributed. At the same time to adjust the lines take into account data on the compositions , injuries, disqualifications , etc. Analyzing the results of cash flow, bookie put the odds on totals and special offers. Sometimes at this stage odds can vary greatly.
So what we have in the end ? In theory, every bookmaker should independently form a line. In practice, it turns out that an ordinary player bets against the whole world betting system , which jointly produces favorable odds for 36 hours.
Conclusion – if you want to gain an advantage , it is better to bet for 2-1.5 days before the match , when the probability of bookmaker error is very high. Anticipate bookmakers in searching for information, anticipate odds movements and always be slightly ahead of the system.

You can Beat Sportpesa if you can only learn how to use most all of the above factors .. In sportpesa offices are working people, and of course they are wrong 2-1.5 days before the match . At first glance, these errors are not visible and can only be found after careful analysis.


Enjoy the game!


Posted in SportPesa Tagged with: , , , , ,

February 17th, 2016 by Mary Ongubo

This is a easy to read #spreadsheet so you all can see our latest and brutally honest #results of our free bets ????

http://tupesa.co.ke Current Month in Detail

Its denominated in units for ease of use. 1 unit =1% of account balance(3k in our case)

tupesa profits april ma

sportpesa today games

We have had a total of 1455 members  in so far.

#Patience is the Key

We doubt any other Kenyan tipster has such honesty or guts.



Posted in Betin.co.ke, Elitebet Kenya, Make money online in Kenya, SportPesa, Sportpesa Jackpot, Uncategorized Tagged with: ,

January 16th, 2016 by Mary Ongubo

I guess a congrats is in order.
You made it this far.

The questions is … do you have what it takes to stick around?

I’m going to expose you to some stuff that is going to make your eyes water.

What I’ll be sharing is going to scare the hell out of you. Yet at the same time excite you like nothing else.

You see, we do things differently around here.

Instead of following the crowd and the “goo-roos” and conforming to the status quo … well, let’s just say that we zag when everyone else zigs.

You’ll see why shortly.

Before I launch into the good stuff (that eye watering stuff), it would be rude not to do quick introductions.

best sportpesa predictions

Like who the hell are we anyway?

And why should you pay attention to what we have to say?

At Tupesa we have a little badass ninja team of non-conformists.

There’s yours truly,TupesaKing’ori (cofounder). I’m the technical guy. I am a statistician and economist.

That’s my “superpower”.

The thing that I’m most well known for.

I’m also the author of Mjomba.com . Nominated for Kenyas best business blog.

Then there’s Kelvin Mugereki(cofounder). His “superpower” is traffic.

He generates close to a million visitors a year for tupesa from Google.

He has an MBA and a psychology degree.And makes all his money betting.

We don’t just teach this stuff.

We’re in the trenches every day DOING and EXECUTING what we teach.

Now I have a question for you.

Take your time to come up with the answer.


“Why would you buy bet predictions?”

Think about that for a minute.

Not just the surface answer.

Like to “get money” or to “do this” or “do that”.

But think about the REAL underlying reason WHY you (ultimately) buy a sportpesa or elitebet or betway or whaterver you use prediction.

Do you have your answer?

We can’t guess your answer (we may be a team of superheroes but we still can’t read minds … yet).

It may differ from us. But we doubt it.

For us the bottom line is about PROFITS.

As in making cold hard cash-o-la. Or to make more of it.

Makes sense, yes?

Next question.


“Faced with two choices, the easy (fast) option or the harder (slower) option, which would you choose?

This is not a trick question.


No surprise if you went for the easy/fast choice. Our guess is that 99.99% of people would have answered that.

It’s human nature.

Nothing wrong with that. Nothing at all.

Who honestly chooses the hard/slow route anyway?

Truth is, we would answer easy/fast too. And therein lies the BIG PROBLEM.

Because in business the two don’t play well together.

Like oil and water.

Sad really.

Because EASY FAST PROFITS is really the “Holy Grail”, isn’t it?

It’s the big dream.

The shiny object.

The Sportpesa,Mcheza,Betin or  Betway Kenya JACKPOT.

The sex appeal of it.

It’s IRRESISTIBLE … certainly early on.

We were no different.

Like a moth to a flame early on both Kevin and I got seduced by the lie.

Damn it, it almost screwed me. Loosing over 40k trying to win the JP.

I almost found myself back looking for a “job” at one point.

Which really wasn’t an ideal scenario seen as though I’m very much UNEMPLOYABLE.

The REASON WHY we struggled our asses off when we first started in this crazy business, was because we connected the two answers together.


Oil and water, remember?

They’re not synchronous.

Here is a quote from one of the worlds wisest men,Charlie Munger:

Any damn fool can see that a horse carrying a light weight with a wonderful win rate and a good post position etc., etc. is way more likely to win than a horse with a terrible record and extra weight and so on and so on. But if you look at the odds, the bad horse pays 100 to 1, whereas the good horse pays 3 to 2. Then it’s not clear which is statistically the best bet using the mathematics of Fermat and Pascal. The prices have changed in such a way that it’s very hard to beat the system.

Given those mathematics, is it possible to beat the horses only using one’s intelligence? Intelligence should give some edge, because lots of people who don’t know anything go out and bet lucky numbers and so forth. Therefore, somebody who really thinks about nothing but horse performance and is shrewd and mathematical could have a very considerable edge, in the absence of the frictional cost caused by the house take.

And the o­ne thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who’ve beaten the betting system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.

It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it ‑ who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find o­ne.

And the wise o­nes bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it’s obviously right based on experience not only from the betting system, but everywhere else.

We at Tupesa are the fanatics -we eat ,drink and live betting. And only when the odds are right do we send the predictions to our members .

More recently, Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out his personal philosophy — the one he says will guide the company moving forward it.

It is a 21st-century manifesto for a new way of doing business. In it he says:

  • We don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.
  • We don’t wake up in the morning with the primary goal of making money
  • These days I think more and more people want to use services from companies that believe in something beyond simply maximizing profits.
  • By focusing on our mission and building great services, we believe we will create the most value for our shareholders and partners over the long term…

We at Tupesa embrace this values and apply them daily in our jobs.Consequently, the side effect of “changing the world” (the betterment of others) is typically a crap load of money.

In 2015 I decided to change my core thinking. I started tupesa.co.ke.That was my decision. For me, it has paid off. Massively.

I choose to give a fuck. I choose to be different. I choose to have a personality. I choose to reject the status quo. I choose to maintain my core values and never “sell out”.

I choose to change the world, if only in a small way:

What about you? Have the guts to roll the dice. Perhaps it’s time to make the right decision.

The point of it was to give you a glimpse into how we think.

And how you prob’ly need to start thinking too if you wanna crush it (or even just compete) in competitive real money markets.

Tupesa Members will always going to beat the average gambler/punter who gets screwed by sportpesa everyday.

It was impossible for him to lose. The end result was inevitable.



See Profit and Loss statement for Tupesa Predictions here

Join us today by contacting 0710-792-715

Creator: tupesa.co.ke

P.S. This isn’t a system you have to learn. We give you the exact bets to place and it’s so easy to use that even if you’ve never placed a bet before you can start profiting from our uncanny ability to pick winners.

P.P.S. This service costs Ksh.500  per month on subscription. With the odds of some of the winners We’ve given to our members, it’s possible you’ll be turning a profit from just a single bet.

P.P.P.S. We reserve the right to raise/lower the price in the future or to close the doors entirely to people wishing to join. Guarantee your place in our exclusive membership circle at this bargain basement price by signing up right now.

Disclaimer: Any and all claims or representations, as to income earnings are not to be considered as average earnings. There can be no assurance that any prior success, or past results, as to income earnings, can be used as an indication of future success or results.

Where testimonials are used, these are to highlight customers who have done well using the service, these are genuine positive examples of what people have achieved, but are by no means representative of the average user. As this is a gambling service there are no guarantees whatsoever that you will repeat the success of the examples given in the testimonials and there are no guarantees that results we have achieved in the past will be repeated in the future.

Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. No guarantees are given as to the amount you will make from betting, any examples or testimonials should be treated as extreme examples. By using our websites, services and downloads you agree that our company and our affiliates are not responsible for the success or failure of your actions resulting from the use or misuse of our website, products and / or services or anything we recommend.


Posted in angelholms stats, assyriska statistics, Cluj stats, eliteserien statistics, flamengo statistics, football stats, Free tips, hammarby statistics, hammarby stats, kawasaki stats, Make money online in Kenya, SportPesa Tagged with: , , , ,

June 22nd, 2015 by Mary Ongubo

SportPesa Today’s Games prediction and analysis

So your one of those free loaders who wouldn’t part with a measly 200bob a week for Tupesa premium predictions and your stuck with continuous losses due to misleading odds and using some head to head analysis from the other sites I had provided.So where do you get free sportpesa predictions and tips backed by good reasoning and stats.A great place to look for Sportpesa today’s games predictions and analysis is from here. I wanted to answer a lot of questions many first timers to this website usually ask, where Kenyan punters whether betting on sportpesa,betpawa.co.keelitebetkenya,betin,betway,justbet or royalbet the challenges are the same.

I run a premium paid membership where I send my best prematch bets to members for a small weekly fee of Ksh.650 for 7 days of 4-8 bets per day sent by sms for daily games. Live betting is available on several websites in Kenya I prefer betpawa.co.ke.

After a lot of success over the last 3 years, i’ve decided to start Tupesa where I  answer questions from readers about my betting experience and betting in Kenya in general. Tupesa is designed to help people with their betting and get insight from someone with years of experience and bags of profit.

If you have any questions about my paid Sportpesa predictions membership, FREE In-plays, my betting experience or betting in Kenya general, be sure to contact us on 0710-792-715 (support line for daily matches and jackpots. Daily matches now cost kes 100 while Jackpots cost kes 250. We send them using typical SMS/Text Message service upon payment. Please note that payment can only be made to the number provided.) and we’ll have your questions answered and maybe up on site with my full answer as soon as possible!


I started betting for fun back in 2013 but it wasn’t until 2014 when I started taking the betting game seriously and realised that I could make an extra long term profit from it.
When I began taking things seriously in late 2014, I started with a Ksh.8,000 balance. This is the bank roll i’d recommend for anyone thinking of taking this game seriously.
Between 2012 and 2014, I just bet for fun so I have no idea what I staked or anything but its more than likely that I lost a bit of cash. I began recording everything from 2015. In 2015 I staked a total of 77,000 and I returned a total of 136,000, giving me a profit of 59,000

I have joined several betting sites in Kenya offering todays games other than sportpesa and I’m open / honest about this. What does this mean? I am able to get the most value since I can compare prices of several betting sites in Kenya for todays games. Does this mean you have to have many accounts ? OF COURSE NOT, as long as your betting site whether Sportpesa or whatever is comfortable for you continue to use it up to a point where you need more features that are not on your site.This is more so for sportpesa games where they have no LIVE BETTING,No DRAW NO BET(DNB),No UNDER/OVER 1.5 fulltime.
These are many more can be found on betpawa.co.ke. All you need to do is register there. Believe it or not, people who sign up for my paid membership are rarely ever on Sportpesa , its 69% likely that they have other betting sites like ,Bet Pawa, Bet Yetu, Mcheza and the rest to place their bets, so by producing consistent winners and making a long term profit (which I do). There’s a lot of people on social media who portray paid memberships  as scum, which isn’t true in my opinion. I’m human, I want to make as much money as possible and if this means I can do so by producing consistent winners for myself and my followers AS WELL AS making profit elsewhere, then who I am to say no to that. Please note that if you’re not a fan of paid Sportpesa predictions, simply don’t join and just follow the FREE tips found online or elsewhere.
I use many online resources to do my research but a lot comes from the knowledge i’ve acquired from years of experience. I know most leagues world wide inside out and this experience is something research can’t give you. As for statistical research, I use different sites to check recent form, team news, H2H comparison and even information that can have an effect on the game such as weather, location etc… I am also a member of several online tipping services that charge over $99 per week.
Yes, I have used a number of sites. Some or popular others not but across the board, Mjomba at Mjomba.com is my favourite. We have added their number here in this site because we believe they also have quality tips. East or west, you’ll come to find that Mjomba is the best hands down but you can also do your research if you want. If you want to try their tips, we have added the contact at the end of the article.

DISCIPLINE! Without being disciplined, you’ll lose your full bank very quickly. You must NEVER chase losses and you must realise that losing bets is all part of the game. If you think you’re going to win 100% of the time, you’ll lose 100% of the time in the long run. The quicker you accept on bad days that you have to shut the laptop and restart tomorrow instead of chasing losses, the quicker you’ll become disciplined. The reason 99.9% of bettors can’t make a long term gain from sportpesa is because they aren’t disciplined enough.
It all depends on how much I like the bet and what the odds are. For lower odds bets, I tend to bet a higher stake and for higher odds bets, I tend to keep the stakes at the lower end. I’ll never discuss my exact stakes or post images of my exact stakes but I post a photo of my balance at the end of almost every day, so why is that? As people know, my balance is a lot higher than probably 95% of my members so I don’t want to post images of me betting high stakes and encourage irresponsible gambling. I will NOT promote irresponsible gambling and I believe you should NEVER bet what you can’t afford, so by posting images of my balance each day instead of posting each bet and stake, i’m not in anyway encouraging people to follow high stakes, i’m instead showing the progression in my balance.

Glossary of some betting terms on Sportpesa an other widely used betting platforms like BetPawa.co.ke:

Pretty much every day of my life as a tipster I’m asked what something means
Here’s a quick glossary of some betting terms to help you understand:
Value – often misinterpreted as “Odds Against” / a bet over evens, but is actually the different between the bookmakers price on any selection vs your personal opinion of an event happening. E.G. If you feel Liverpool have a 70% chance of winning this weekend, they should be priced at 1.43 or 4/9. If instead they were priced at 4/6 then this indicates value for you as you feel the likely outcome is greater than the price being offered
  • U1.5, U2.5, U3.5 etc – the U here simply means Under

  • TG – Team Goals – O1.5TG for example would mean you need a team to score 2 or more

  • Treble – 3 selections that all need to win for your bet to win

  • Trixie – a bet with 3 selections where your stake is placed equally on 3 doubles and a treble. E.G. A 50p trixie on selections ABC would total £2 with 50p placed on AB, AC, BC and ABC

  • Single – a bet containing only one selection

  • Spreads – another term for handicap

  • WDW – means Win-Draw-Win and is often used to describe the most popular market in football betting which is the outcome of the match
  • SP – means “starting price” and indicates the price of a selection at the point when the event begins

  • Stake – the amount you place on a selection

  • O1.5, O2.5, O3.5 etc – The O here simply means Over

  • Odds On – when the price of a selection is lower than EVENS it’s described as “Odds On”

  • Odds Against – when the price of a sleection is greater than EVENS it’s described as “Odds Against”

  • Outlay – the amount of money you have on any selection

  • NAP – mainly used in Horse Racing to describe the best bet of the day

  • NB – stands for “Next Best” and is again mainly used in Horse Racing to describe the 2nd best bet of the day

  • MG – Match Goals – the total number of goals in a match

  • Lay – the opposite of backing a bet is to “lay” it or to bet against a particular outcome

  • Longshot – an outsider that is deemed to have less chance of winning by the bookmakers

  • Lump – the act of putting a larger than normal bet on a selection. Not reccommended

  • Acca / Accumulator – a bet using multiple selections

  • Inplay – betting on a selection that is happening now and live
  • Handicap – a way of creating value in bets by either giving a team a goal or more headstart or starting from a losing position. E.G. Man City -1 Handicap would mean they need to win by 2 or more
  • GG – an abbreviation of Goals Galore, the same as Both Teams to Score
  • Double – two selections that both need to win for your bet to win
  • Cover – if you backed Over 2.5 Goals in a game and there were 2 early goals, the act of then backing Under 2.5 Goals to guarantee a win either way is known as a “cover” bet
  • Arb / Arbitrage – to back all outcomes of an event in such a way that a win is guaranteed

  • BTTS / BTS – Both Teams to Score / Both To Score

  • Back – to “back” a bet means to bet on the outcome happening

  • Banker – a bet that is expected to win

  • DNB – Draw No Bet – You get a refund if the game ends in a draw

  • DC – means double chance, backing a team to either win or draw a game

  • FH – an abbreviation of First Half

  • FGS – First Goalscorer

  • FT – Full Time

  • Favourite – the most likely outcome of an event according to bookmakers

  • Form – a guide of recent performances

  • Evens – when the price of a selection is more than 2.

You may bump into one or several of such times but bettingwide, they are definitely something you need to learn and master! By the way, have you guys played on betpawa.co.ke?


Posted in Betin.co.ke, Elitebet Kenya, Make money online in Kenya, SportPesa, Sportpesa Jackpot, Uncategorized Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,