Insider Secret:How Sportpesa REALLY Makes Money
So you keep wondering how Sportpesa really sets the odds especially for KPL matches.Here is basic insider information on how major bookies work their system to get odds.There is no secret that Spesa always has an advantage over the bettors , as they have comprehensive information about the participants of events and creates lines with a view to minimizing their risks . Some professional bettors naively believe that if they will bet on some little-known events, such as Russia’s second division match, the ignorant Sportpesa is sure to make a mistake and offer them high odds. In practice, it says only one thing, the so-called “professional” has no idea how bookmakers line is formed actually. A bookmarkers line is what you call the ODDS for an event. And it is very useful to know , because having such information and analyzing it, you can really afford to gain an advantage, but first things first .
CAUTION:THIS MAYBE A BIT TOO TECHNICAL.
Chance of any outcome varies from 0 to 100%, or from 0 to 1. Each event can have several outcomes. For example, in a football game can beat the home team,away team or a draw. Each outcome has a probability. Sum of the probabilities of all outcomes is always 100%.Experts at Sportpesa are required to estimate the probability of each outcome as good as possible.
To estimate the probability Sportpesa uses:
– Statistics of previous games teams;
– A list of injured players;
– Motivating the team and individual players;
– Relationships within the team and between the players and coach;
– The situation surrounding the future transition of players to other teams or the expectations of the arrival of new players, it affects the morale of the team;
– Objectives of the team in the tournament, which is held as part of the match;
– The country, the city, the stadium where the match will take place (based on this: the duration of the flight, the aggressiveness of the fans and the level of support, covering the lawn, etc.);
– Loyalty arbitrators appointed for the match;
– Weather forecast at the time of the event;
and many other factors.
After a deep analysis of the people in charge of setting the odds display the probability for each outcome of sports events. It further needs to value from 0 to 1 (50% 0.5 = 30% = 0.3, 7 = 0.07%). Thereafter, the unit (1) divided by the probability values and the coefficients are obtained. For example, for a 50% ratio is: 1/0.5 = 2.0, 30% for: 1/0.3 = 3.33 to 7%: 1/0.07 = 14.29.
The resulting coefficients are aligned chance event outcomes and are thus the odds. If the odds are defined correctly, Sportpesa does not care, on what outcome of the event players will bet. This is due to the fact that if a lot of these will be played exactly the same match, the outcome will be distributed evenly: the home team to win every other match, a draw will occur in 3 of the 10 matches, and only the away team to win 7 times out of 100. But if the coefficients are calculated correctly, the winnings will never exceed the amount of money raised for all outcomes of the same event.
An exception may be only the case at the Sportpesa, when a large amount of money placed on one outcome, and there comes the so-called money-skewed line. Professional bettors are constantly noticing a situation where the odds vary in line near the beginning of the match compared to earlier during the day or a day earlier. This is due to the fact that the sport pesa adjusts the line due to the fact that on one outcome put a lot more money than the opposite, and it is desirable uniform distribution rates.In this case, they lure players to high odds(ie. coefficients of the outcome), which is not set. A small odds on the outcome, on which the most money is raised, push away those who would like to bet on favorite team like Barca and Real Madrid matches .At least thats the theory part.
In practice, of course, each bookie more so Sportpesa does not create his own line except for local matches in the Kenya Premier League(KPL). For these purposes they would have to hire specialists forecasters very high class for each sport, and this can afford only favorites .
In practice, most bookmakers simply rewrite the line with each other. Bookmaker try to limit bets to minimize their risks . Let’s look at the principle of lines forming on small local competition in stages to ensure, that waiting for an error from the bookmaker – a thankless task .Bookmakers find a way out of this situation. And the way out of this situation is mutual assistance. Large and small, local and foreign operators start, like a big family, helping each other.
The process of forming the line here undergoes four key stages. Let us examine each of them in detail on the example of the Russian Basketball League match Khimki – Unix:
The first – is the formation of the initial line. This “dirty work” in the bulk operate sportsbooks that are closest to the action. A Sportpesa bookmaker can only wait and monitor the activity of players and cash flows on a given line. Based on these data , Sportpesa bookmakers form their odds. eg. 1.5 – 2.5
The second key step is ” ramming the line .” It usually begins the day before the match. At this stage giants like betting Bet365,Betwin, Ladbrokes or Gamebookers begin to exhibit their lines market. As in the case of the first stage, at the stage of “ramming” closely monitored by the number and size of bets on each of the outcomes , and the line is adjusted on the basis of these data. At this stage the office actively begin check their lines with lines of competitors and rewrite them. If we return to our match Khimki-Unix, at this stage the odds already constitute 1.35-2.80.
The third and most important stage in the formation of lines is “global rewriting”. The name speaks for itself. Rewriting traditionally begins on the morning of the match when occurs players main activity. Coming to work at 8 am, Sportpesa spread their lines in 12-13 hours a day. In the 4 hours they are using special software that scan active bettors, monitors the main financial flows, compare their data with the competitors, and based on this information publish the most optimal odds, which is issued for their own. Thus, 5 hours before the beginning of the match , we have the coefficients of 1.39 to win Khimki and 2.70 UNIKS to win.
It is at the stage of global rewriting included in the formation of lines, most bookmakers , including all Kenyan bookmakers such as Sportpesa,Betin,Betway,mCheza,Justbet just to name a few . This phase – the most important for bettors who want to get the best conditions . Global rewriting lines – real time in order to make a bet ( provided that you still see somewhere advantage over the line ). Experts prefer to catch the most “delicious” odds on the stage of ” ramming “.
The fourth and final stage – the line correction. At this stage, the whole market (all bookies both in Kenya and internationally)comes around to a consensus about the odds line up for the match . Once the line becomes public Sportpesa begins to adjust the line depending on how the cash balance is distributed. At the same time to adjust the lines take into account data on the compositions , injuries, disqualifications , etc. Analyzing the results of cash flow, bookie put the odds on totals and special offers. Sometimes at this stage odds can vary greatly.
So what we have in the end ? In theory, every bookmaker should independently form a line. In practice, it turns out that an ordinary player bets against the whole world betting system , which jointly produces favorable odds for 36 hours.
Conclusion – if you want to gain an advantage , it is better to bet for 2-1.5 days before the match , when the probability of bookmaker error is very high. Anticipate bookmakers in searching for information, anticipate odds movements and always be slightly ahead of the system.
You can Beat Sportpesa if you can only learn how to use most all of the above factors .. In sportpesa offices are working people, and of course they are wrong 2-1.5 days before the match . At first glance, these errors are not visible and can only be found after careful analysis.
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Enjoy the game!